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#probability

5 posts5 participants0 posts today

Happy Birthday, Laplace! 🎂 🪐 🎓 One of the first to use Bayesian probability theory in the modern way!

"One sees in this essay that the theory of probabilities is basically only common sense reduced to a calculus. It makes one estimate accurately what right-minded people feel by a sort of instinct, often without being able to give a reason for it. It leaves nothing arbitrary in the choice of opinions and of making up one's mind, every time one is able, by this means, to determine the most advantageous choice. Thereby, it becomes the most happy supplement to ignorance and to the weakness of the human mind. If one considers the analytical methods to which this theory has given rise, the truth of the principles that serve as the groundwork, the subtle and delicate logic needed to use them in the solution of the problems, the public-benefit businesses that depend on it, and the extension that it has received and may still receive from its application to the most important questions of natural philosophy and the moral sciences; if one observes also that even in matters which cannot be handled by the calculus, it gives the best rough estimates to guide us in our judgements, and that it teaches us to guard ourselves from the illusions which often mislead us, one will see that there is no science at all more worthy of our consideration, and that it would be a most useful part of the system of public education."

*Philosophical Essay on Probabilities*, 1814 <doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-418>

Over the past couple of years, I've really fallen in love with #tikz and all of its quirks.

TikZ is a plotting/graphics package for LaTeX that is especially useful for creating mathematical diagrams.

The support for mathematical notation is unbeatable and the flexibility of the language is extremely high. Also, graphics rendered to pdf/svg in this way are extremely lightweight and reproducible.

I do find it very challenging syntax to remember though, so I put together this GitHub repository to keep track of tikz code I've written.

github.com/ctesta01/tikz-examp

Each graphic shown in the README is linked to its underlying .tex code.

Also the README has several links to documentation / tutorials that I've found helpful along with some tips I've learned from experience.

Dear LazyWeb: is there a C/C++, #RustLang or #Zig equivalent of #SciPy’s `stats` module for statistical analysis? Namely:
• a collection of common PDFs (probability density functions);
• MLE (maximum likelihood estimation) for these common distributions;
• KDE (kernel density estimation).

SciPy’s API is a pleasure to work with. Anything that comes close but usable from C/C++/Rust/Zig would make my life so much easier. Boosts appreciated for visibility.

#Probability “乌合之众” Normal; “一将功成” Power Law; “三人成虎” Beta distribution.
"屡败屡战“ Negative Binomial;“覆水难收” Log-Normal; “江河日下” Weibull, "昙花一现" Exponential, “多事之秋” Gamma, “无妄之灾” Poisson;"天降横祸" Levy.
p.s. 稳稳的幸福不用搏概率, 搏概率的通常没好事儿。#SafeSoundSatisfied